ASM Ceredigion Election Poll – The Results

logo-en-cyA WEEK ago we launched our ASM Ceredigion election poll in order to try and predict who will be returned as MP for Ceredigion somewhere between 4-5 am on Friday morning. The poll itself wasn’t particularly scientific and, therefore, the results should be taken with a pinch of salt.

A total of 154 individuals responded to the poll. Thanks to all of you who took the time to take part. The main findings were:

Are you a student or a local? # %
Student 98 63.6
Local 56 36.4


Which candidate are you most likely to vote for? # %
Dan Thompson – Green 12 7.8
Mike Parker – Plaid Cymru 54 35.1
Mark Williams – Liberal Democrats 38 24.7
Huw Thomas – Labour 20 13
Henrietta Hensher – Conservative 10 6.5
Gethin James – UKIP 10 6.5
None of the above 10 6.5


Who do you believe is most likely to win in Ceredigion? # %
Dan Thompson – Green 0 0
Mike Parker – Plaid Cymru 77 50.7
Mark Williams – Liberal Democrats 71 46.7
Huw Thomas – Labour 3 2
Henrietta Hensher – Conservative 0 0
Gethin James – UKIP 1 0.7


Which national party will get the most seats overall? # %
Labour 82 53.9
Conservatives 64 42.1
Other 6 3.9



News Editor Jonny Haseldine comment:

More than anything this election poll was just a bit of fun in the build up to the real action on Thursday. None of the results are surprising and will come as no great shock to anybody who has been following Ceredigion politics in the run-up to the election. Post-2010 and the issues surrounding fees it was always going to be the case that the Liberal Democrats lost a significant proportion of the student vote. Therefore no real surprise that Plaid Cymru come out on top in a poll where almost 2/3 of the respondents identified as students. The most interesting question was the one which asked respondents to select who they thought was ‘most likely to win in Ceredigion’. Apart from the few staunch supporters in various camps, most understood that, realistically, only the Lib Dems or Plaid are going to win here. While in our poll Plaid came out on top by 6, it remains simply too close to predict who will win here. Just remember – in the event of a dead heat – the winner decided by a pack of playing cards. Ace is high.